The pace of the pandemic is now worse than in the spring

Unless there is a serious change in the behavior of Canadians, the domestic coronavirus pandemic will continue to explode, Canada public health warns. The finding is even more alarming than that drawn up two weeks ago.

“We are at the tipping point of this pandemic,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned on Friday. The day before, Canada had just reported its highest toll of new daily cases of COVID-19 since the crisis began last spring.

More than 2,400 Canadians were diagnosed with the coronavirus on Thursday. This is double the daily average for Canada when the public health projections were last updated on September 23.

“This accelerated epidemic growth is worrying,” insisted the deputy chief public health officer, Dr Howard Njoo.

In data | Our interactive content on COVID-19

His team shared on Friday its most recent projections of the devastation that the coronavirus could wreak in Canada. The warning is stern. The best-case scenario is that if Canadians immediately reduce their contacts by at least 25% to 35%, the number of cases in the country will continue to rise to an average of about 3,300 new cases per day. here mid-October. This threshold would then be the peak of the present curve and the latter could then begin to descend.

On the other hand, if Canadians maintain their current behavior, or worse, increase their contacts, the number of new cases will continue to explode, possibly exceeding 5,000 cases per day by mid-October.

By comparison, there were just under 2,000 cases per day on average during the first wave of the pandemic last spring.

Directors of Public Health and the Prime Minister once again called on Canadians to do their part to turn the tide, including avoiding seeing loved ones this weekend despite Thanksgiving .

“The second wave is frustrating for many who have already crossed the spring and who do not want it to start again,” agreed Mr. Trudeau. “Many of us would like this to end. But the only way to do it is to do our part, ”he insisted. “Public health measures and those of governments can play a role. But only citizens can really determine what the outcome of this crisis will look like in the coming months. “

Canada had 175,559 cases of COVID-19 as of Friday noon, including 9,557 deaths.

Public health in Canada predicts those tolls could number 188,000 to 197,800 cases by next Saturday and 9,700 to 9,800 victims.

Seniors at risk

The majority of new patients remain adults aged 20 to 39 years. But the pandemic is starting to catch up with Canadians over 80. Again, this is a “worrying increase,” observed Dr.r Njoo. As is the arrival of new outbreaks in long-term care facilities. “Although the number of cases is lower than in April and May, we must do everything possible to limit the scale and impact of outbreaks in these high-risk settings,” the doctor warned.

The number of hospitalizations nationwide has also doubled in the last two weeks and the death rate is starting to rise again. The virus’s reproduction rate has remained above 1 since the end of August – meaning that each patient transmits the coronavirus to more than one person.

Still, Prime Minister Trudeau did not appear to be intending to intervene with provinces struggling to control this second wave, which could be more devastating than the first. “We will continue to support the premiers, to support their governments and the decisions they make in the best interest of their local situation,” Trudeau said when asked the question. “Our responsibility is to continue to support Canadians directly,” he said, citing the economic measures deployed for workers who have lost their wages or companies which are struggling to resume operations.

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