With less than a month to go before the US presidential election, Democratic candidate Joe Biden (53%) now has a ten-point lead over Republican opponent Donald Trump (43%) according to a recent Leger poll.
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“Mr. Biden’s lead is growing every two weeks. We note three major events in the last week: the tax fraud denounced by the NY Times, the debate of the disastrous leaders for Mr. Trump and his hospitalization, ”says Jean-Marc Léger.
The final choice of voters is also well arrested (94%), a score unprecedented according to the pollster.
The impact of COVID is negative
Short as it was, President Trump’s hospitalization seems to favor Joe Biden in several ways so far.
Sympathy for Trump exists, but it does not increase his support. It remains to be seen how the 74-year-old billionaire will react after he leaves hospital.
About 39% of respondents believe the current president got what he deserved because he downplayed the risk of the virus.
The majority (61%), however, think it is a sad event and wish him a speedy recovery.
“Donald Trump has always presented himself as invincible and unbeatable. He laughed at Biden’s old age saying he was not strong. And it is he who finds himself ill. The superman ate a blow, ”says Jean-Marc Léger.
Still high enthusiasm
Despite the recent chaotic debate, interest in the campaign remains high with 86% of respondents eager to support their candidate.
Americans are far from jaded by the current race.
If Donald Trump has always been seen as the winner, the trend is now reversed.
“Following his hospitalization, this is the first time Biden has been seen as the winner. Americans are starting to think Biden is going to win. This was not the case in the beginning, ”explains Léger.
About 48% of respondents still believe Donald Trump is going to win.
A problematic start
Americans are rather divided at the moment over whether Donald Trump will leave if defeated.
About 41% of respondents do not believe the president will leave the White House peacefully, while 38% say he will do so without problem.
“This is the first time the question has been asked,” says Jean-Marc Léger. In a particular context, Americans are also paying close attention to candidates for the post of vice president, especially given the age and state of health of the chiefs.
Some 63% of respondents want to listen to the next debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence.
Liar and racist
The results of the poll on the characteristics of the two adversaries are hardly flattering for Donald Trump.
The latter is seen as a liar (55%), a racist (49%) and a misogynist (47%), three perceptions much higher than for Joe Biden.
President Trump is, however, seen to be more dynamic (49%) than Biden (29%).
Finally, Trump is also, according to respondents, a stronger leader (47%) than Biden (37%).
“We hate him or we love him, it’s one or the other. In the United States, this election is sure to be a referendum on Trump first, ”added Léger, speaking of Donald Trump.
The web survey was conducted by Léger from October 2 to 4, 2020 among 1,001 Americans, aged 18 or over, randomly recruited to ensure a representative sample.