Three weeks before the ballot box: Great US election forecast: This is really how it is in the fight between Trump and Biden
Now it is getting tight for US President Trump: Around three weeks before the election there are polls for the first time that suggest that competitor Joe Biden could bring together the electoral votes necessary to move into the White House. A look at the key trends in US polls.
270 votes are up in the White House. Now there are initial analyzes that suggest that the Democrat Joe Biden could bring these voices together. Biden has been leading in national surveys for months, currently with an average of over ten percent. But that is not important. It depends on whether Biden wins enough individual states. Because that’s the only way he can become president.
For a long time there has not been a clear tendency here, too few surveys, too many states in which no favorite had emerged, too many winning or losing scenarios. That has apparently changed recently.
There are 270 votes because the president in the USA is not elected directly by the people, but indirectly via the “Electoral College”, the electoral college, consisting of 538 electoral men and women. 270 votes form the majority. The electors are sent by the states, depending on their population. Except for Maine and Nebraska, all US states give their votes collectively to the candidate who won in their state. It can happen that a candidate wins the national vote, ie has the most votes overall, but still does not become president because he did not get enough individual states and thus votes for the “Electoral College” – namely 270.
The maps of 2016 and 2020 in comparison: The current CNN forecast shows how Biden (blue) appears to be recapturing various Republican states (red). In yellow, the highly competitive states, where Trump and Biden are currently head to head.
How many votes does Trump have “sure”?
For the current incumbent Trump, the election on November 3rd could be tight. True, according to surveys
- a solid base of 125 electoral votes from 20 states. It is considered highly likely that these votes will go to Trump.
- It also looks like Trump could secure the precious votes from Texas. Texas is the second most popular state.
But that would only bring Trump to a total of 163 votes – 107 away from his re-election.
How many votes does Biden have “sure”?
For the first time, according to a new calculation by TV station CNN, it looks like Biden could get a majority on the electoral college.
- 203 votes are considered fairly certain.
- There are 87 other votes from states that currently tend towards the Democrats.
That would add up to 290 electoral votes, giving Biden a majority in the electoral college.
What is the reason for this new majority?
It is a particularly great success for Biden that he might the “Blue Wall“Can rebuild. So 18 states (and the capital Washington D.C.) are named, which for many years and decades have consistently voted democratic (whose color is traditionally blue). Donald Trump had “torn down” this “blue wall” when he won the election in 2016 – and became president.
As a particularly critical state in this election Pennsylvaniabecause there are 20 votes to be won here. For a long time there was no clear trend there, Biden and Trump were virtually on par in the polls. Now Biden in Pennsylvania has been able to maintain a lead of at least five percent for an extended period of time.
This “blue wave” also shines in the neighboring states Michigan and Wisconsin spill over, in which Biden can expand his constant lead in the polls. Donald Trump won all of these three states four years ago.
Which states are still undecided?
If you believe the analysis by CNN, five particularly hard-fought “battleground” states are still considered open: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio. There is also a district in Maine that also gives one vote. In total there are 85 electoral votes to be won in these undecided areas. But Trump should all If these states win, the analysis shows that he would still be short of 22 votes for re-election.
Current surveys in these “battleground” states show how tight the result could look here:
Could Biden even win traditional Republican states?
For Biden, states are now within reach that were considered unattainable in the past few years or even a few weeks ago. According to surveys, he just leads in Arizonaa, a state that traditionally goes to Republicans in presidential elections. Apart from Bill Clinton’s 1996 election victory, Arizona has always voted Republican red since 1952.
Another major loss for Trump could be North Carolina will. In the southern state, Republicans have also been elected for decades, except in 2008, when Barack Obama won here extremely narrowly.
It could be particularly bitter for Trump in Iowa will. Here he still won in 2016 by almost ten percent, now his competitor Biden is just ahead in surveys.
Are there any states with a signal effect for the election?
Calculations show that the state of Pennsylvania could make the complete choice. According to a forecast by FiveThirtyEight, Pennsylvania is the state that will likely give either Trump or Biden the decisive votes for the election victory. Pennsylvania is so important that under this model, Trump has an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he wins the state. And for Biden, there is even a 96 percent chance of becoming president if he is victorious in Pennsylvania.
Many eyes will also be on Florida on November 3rd. Not only that, as noted, this state does not currently have a clear favorite according to surveys. In addition, since 1964, the candidate who won Florida has also won the presidential election. (The exception was Clinton in 1992.)
Florida has the third highest number of electoral votes, namely 29, and is therefore considered essential for an election victory – especially for Trump. In Florida there have also been very close election results over the past three decades, with the difference between winners and losers being only a few thousand votes in some cases.
Which population groups could decide the choice?
In Florida it will be crucial whether Biden can win back the seniors. Four years ago, Trump won Florida by 113,000 votes, but won the senior group by almost 330,000 votes. Seniors traditionally vote more often than other groups, and now polls show that these older voters have increasingly moved away from Republican elections and leaned towards Biden instead. A new Quinnipiac poll shows that Biden leads just as strongly with the seniors as with hardly any other group of voters: 55 percent compared to Trump’s 40 percent.
For the Republicans, this leads to a dilemma: If Trump cannot win the seniors, then he would have to win other groups of voters. Another major electorate in Florida are Hispanic Americans. Trump has also campaigned more intensely with them in recent months, especially with the Cuban-Americans. Because while the majority of Hispanics feel more like Democrats, it is the other way around with the Kubanos – and Trump is now hoping to win the state of Florida with their help.
What means does Trump have to turn the race around?
As is so often the case now, money is crucial. The highly competitive Pennsylvania was recently an important market for both campaign teams. Biden spent a total of 48 million US dollars on election advertising here, Trump only 21 million, reports CNN. Even more money is being pumped into the election campaign in Florida. However: Trump also had fewer financial resources for his election campaign in 2016 – and still won.
Of course, the candidates also have non-monetary opportunities to score points with the voters. Recently, however, Trump had the disadvantage of hardly being able to campaign because of his Covid disease. The TV debates of the candidates are another tool to reach millions of people – however, Trump did worse in the eyes of the majority in the first debate and has now canceled the second.
What glimmers of hope are there for Trump?
But there is still reason to hope for Trump. For example when he looks at the voter registration. In the US, voters must register in order to cast their vote. Often they register directly for a party. Trump’s campaign team prides itself on knocking on more than a million front doors a week to recruit people directly. In the aforementioned “battleground” states, the Republicans registered more new voters than the Democrats, reports NBC. Biden’s team had initially hesitated to knock on hundreds of thousands of front doors because of the corona pandemic, only the week before last it had reversed the decision.
And then there are the figures that initially have nothing to do with the election, but could still be a clue for Trump: In Pennsylvania, around 280,000 people bought a gun for the first time this year, including many women and African American. This can be interpreted as a warning signal for Biden, since Republicans are generally more in favor of gun ownership and women and African Americans traditionally buy fewer guns. And if they change their minds about gun ownership, then maybe also about the choice?