Joe Biden is more than expected. At this point in the campaign, Donald Trump has already visited Arizona on five occasions and he announced a sixth visit on Monday, October 5, postponed of course due to his hospitalization. Half a dozen of his relatives have passed through the state in September. But, democratic side: the desert. No visit since the primary.
Yet, if pollsters are to be believed, Arizona is one of six or seven “battlefield” states that will make the decision on November 3. Seven million inhabitants, a changing demographics and an asserting Latin electorate. With eleven voters, Arizona is supposed to be Donald Trump’s firewall. A hope of recovery, if he loses Wisconsin or Michigan, for example.
First visit scheduled for October 8
The former vice-president has finally announced a visit for Oct. 8, along with Kamala Harris, who will be out west for the vice-presidents debate the day before in Utah. Arizona has not voted for a Democratic president since 1948 (it was for Harry Truman), with one exception: in 1996, Bill Clinton won, with only 46% of the vote, but there were three candidates. Until 2018, the state was still firmly republican. Arizona is the home of Barry Goldwater, the father of anti-state libertarians and “minutemen,” the militia who patrol the border. It is also the land of Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a caricature of law and order and, most importantly, racial profiling. The octogenarian was still hoping to be elected senator in 2018 after being amnestied by Donald Trump.
In 2016, the Republican billionaire won by 3.5 points over Hillary Clinton, with a score of 48.1%. Nothing very glorious: from George W. Bush in 2004, to Mitt Romney in 2012 and of course John McCain, himself elected from Arizona in 2008, all of his predecessors had exceeded 54% of the vote. But at least the state of the Grand Canyon had remained “red”. With less than a month to go before the Nov. 3 poll, the polls all give Joe Biden a small advantage. And, on the Senate side, a confirmed lead to astronaut Mark Kelly, candidate for the chair of John McCain, who died in 2018. “ We might have two Democratic senators, which for Arizona is crazy “, Anticipates Lisa Magana, professor of political science at the University of Arizona.
Arizona is changing. The state is no longer so monolithic.
Arizona is changing. The state is no longer so monolithic. New voters have arrived to work at branches of banks and tech companies that are expanding further and further around Phoenix. On average, 250 people move into the city every day, and that was before the pandemic, which is currently depopulating California. In these affluent suburbs, where people live in yoga clothes all year round, the Republican vote was automatic. As of 2018, this is no longer the case. ” Trump lost vote for female graduate students , explains Professor Magana. This year, they are exasperated by the mismanagement of the pandemic and the closure of schools “.
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