US election: is the turnaround coming? In the final sprint, Trump catches up and even draws level in Florida
Just a few days before the election, Donald Trump is gaining momentum: in Florida he is suddenly on par with opponent Joe Biden, and he can also win in the polls in other key countries. However, there is much to suggest that it will still be enough for Biden. An overview of the latest figures and developments.
The race for the presidency is getting closer again. According to the statistics page “RealClearPolitics”, which determines the average values from all serious surveys, incumbent Donald Trump can win shortly before election day in the important key states, Joe Biden’s lead is falling.
- Arizona: In September Joe Biden led the polls with 5.7 percent, now it is only 2.2 percent
- North Carolina: There the polls fluctuate wildly, currently Biden is 0.7 percent ahead of Trump
- Florida: Two weeks ago Biden was leading with 3.9 percent, now he is exactly on a par with Trump
- Other particularly hard-fought key states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Trump briefly takes the lead in Florida
The situation in Florida in particular is an important success for Trump that could give him a boost. On Wednesday, the president was even able to take the lead in this crucial state for a short time – for the first time since April. It will be very difficult for Trump to have a chance of re-election at all if he loses in Florida – the “Sunshine State” brings in 29 electoral votes.
But the trend of the past few months has continued: According to current polls, it still looks like challenger Joe Biden will be able to win enough US states to get the necessary 270 electoral votes. Every state in the USA has a certain number of these votes, measured by the population living there. So what matters in the presidential elections is not who gets the most votes overall, but who can get the majority of the electoral votes.
Joe Biden seems to have the necessary 270 votes
Right now, it looks like Democrat Joe Biden could do just that. According to the policy website “270ToWin”, it comes up according to current surveys 290 votes. 212 of them are considered “very likely” or even “certain” because it leads by a considerable margin in the respective states. In comparison, the Republican Donald Trump only got 125 “safe” votes.
However, there are 201 more votes to be given in this scenario. And it is far from certain which candidates will go to. There are tendencies in some of the states, but survey results are scarce and could turn. And then there are a handful of states in which the outcome of the election is completely uncertain because the candidates are virtually tied: Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.
Money shows where the election campaign is raging hardest
A look at where the candidates’ money will go in the days leading up to the election shows which states Biden and Trump are now focusing on.
The Biden campaign has topped its advertising budget again by 41 million US dollars in the final spurt and is now pumping even more money into all highly competitive key states (except Texas). As of election day, it is estimated at $ 8.3 million in Florida, 7.1 million in Pennsylvania, 5.3 million in Michigan, and 4.9 million in North Carolina. This means that Biden’s advertising budget will far exceed that of Trump in almost all key states. Trump only spends more in Minnesota and Ohio, but there Biden currently has a slightly larger lead in the polls.
Trump’s coffers are empty
Trump’s campaign, on the other hand, is short of money. The incumbent’s team has significantly less money than that of competitor Biden and must now decide which states to invest in. Since the beginning of September, Trump has had to cut his advertising budget by $ 24 million, while Biden has added $ 197 million, according to the Bloomberg news agency.
Unlike Biden, however, Trump holds more rallies and speaks more publicly to his supporters. In doing so, he particularly motivates his base to actually cast their vote on election day. But in the end, the expensive TV advertisements are a successful means of motivating voters, especially when the time is tight for personal appearances – in times of Corona more than ever. Because larger campaign appearances are controversial and not easy to implement.
Afraid of flawed surveys
Trump’s strategy now seems to be to focus his resources on the north. There he brought down the “blue wall” in the 2016 election, a traditionally democratically voting community of states. According to an analysis by Advertising Analytics, Trump has cut his advertising budget in Florida; for the last two weeks before the election, he has only calculated a good quarter of what his opponent Biden will spend there on advertisements. Perhaps the incumbent trusts in the positive poll trend for him in the “Sunshine State”.
But as November 3 approaches, Democrats and Republicans are grappling with these polls as well. In most analyzes, Joe Biden leads by a comfortable margin, but the fear – or hope – that the polls might be wrong remains. Because surveys at the state level are traditionally less reliable than those that look at the entire US. The polls reliably showed Hillary Clinton’s lead in the 2016 election – but in some important “swing states” such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin they were up to nine percentage points off.
And of course it also depends on which surveys the statisticians include in their forecasts and how they weight them. On the statistics website “FiveThirtyEight”, for example, there is no sign of a tie in Florida: Biden is still ahead with 1.5 percentage points.
Joe Biden has a strategic advantage
In addition, this election will depend on who casts his or her vote: will everyone who take part in the polls also vote in the end? And do people who are actually not among the likely voters end up voting? And which candidate would they vote for?
Another dynamic to be observed: In the 2016 presidential election, voters from key states who decided to vote at the last minute voted with a large majority for Trump. Because he was considered the candidate who promised big change – but this year it’s competitor Joe Biden who promises change. If the polls are wrong, it doesn’t necessarily have to be Trump who benefits.
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