A survey that makes people talk

Several platforms on the web are recovering this morning the results of a survey carried out by CNN. If, like almost all polls, it indicates that the president is going through a difficult period, it is the differences that surprise.

According to this CNN survey, only 38% believe that Donald Trump is doing his job well. This performance is the worst since January 2019. Perhaps more worryingly, its rating has dropped by seven points since the beginning of May.

Another data showing how painful the beginning of June is for the president: Joe Biden would now be 14 points ahead of him. Presidents like Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush have never recovered from such bad numbers.

Everything else in the poll is going in the same direction and there is very little positive to recover for Donald Trump and his team. If the topic of the racial question were to still defray the news, it could constitute a serious handicap for the president since 63% of the respondents believe that he badly manages this situation.

As I mentioned above, this survey confirms the current difficulties of Donald Trump. Several polls like those of Gallup, Reuters / Ipsos, Economist / YouGov and even Rasmussen (usually a little more favorable to Republicans) point in the same direction.

Before concluding that Donald Trump is likely to be defeated in November, we must of course consider that we are five months away from the election, but also that the start of June was particularly eventful.

The current context is particularly volatile and exceptional. Will the protests continue? Will this theme still be privileged, when it was announced yesterday that a second wave of COVID-19 is hitting certain states? Worried about the economic situation, will the Americans rather choose to trust Trump, in whom they perceive a good manager in this regard?

Members of the president’s entourage are concerned and have noted the succession of adverse polls. The president himself preferred to deny the results and, in his customary fashion, he even demanded an apology from CNN. His campaign team threatened the chain with legal action. A first in the history of CNN for a poll of this nature. If you look at the sampling used by CNN, you will find that it does not differ much from that of many other polling companies.

On June 11, we can say that the outgoing president is in an unfortunate position and that very few of his predecessors have managed to climb such a steep slope. However, we are going through an unprecedented period and it would be very daring to predict a defeat for Donald Trump.

Almost completely confined for a few months, Donald Trump is stamping out and he will hit the road very soon. On June 19, he will participate in his first large gathering since March 2. We chose Tulsa in Oklahoma for this resumption of activities. In closing, I note that June 19 is Liberty Day (announcement of the end of slavery on June 19, 1865) for black Americans and that Tulsa is infamous for many episodes of racial tension. Do not rely on the president to avoid controversy.

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